Can BNB be the next Ethereum ?

Ethereum is a shitcoin and BNB is a shitcoin. Let’s not talk which one is shittier than the other as this is not the goal here.

I think if a coin is to become so overvalued as Ethereum ( or other similar for that matter) once was this could be BNB . A centralized Shitcoin but who cares. It is the market’s opinion of a coin that matters and not the fundamentals, at least for a while and especially in Cryptocurrencies world.

In preparation of the next bubble I am trying to guess what alt coins could potentially perform as the ones that over performed during the 2017 peak. This is a pretty hard task given that almost all coins are shitty with no real use. I think that the market will continue to overvalue altcoins as long as Bitcoin is volatile.

I think BNB will become one of the most overvalued coins. It is one of the few ( only ?) shitcoins that have actually a use as it is used as a medium of exchange in Binance. One other factor will be the “Decentralized” Exchange that Binance will be pushing in the near future which I expect that could give BNB two more magnitudes ( x 100 ) of price boost by 2024.

Below is the historical chart of BNB. Check how consistent the market cycles are. I like that the cycles are repeating consistently and gives me confident that this will also be the case in the future.

I think we are currently on the fourth cycle and I am expecting at least two more during the next two years something which could boost the price tremendously.

Binance as a company has often dialogue with the Cryptocurrency community and openly supports Bitcoin which is another reason that I also support them.

For this reason for the next two years I will be buying 1 BNB per month and if I see that the market continues as it has in the past I will be continue to average in until the next big bubble which I expect in 2024.

My prediction is that at the next Bull market if it happens in 2020 , BNB price will end up being around $200 per piece and during the 2024 Bull market around $2000.

I already started and have 36 BNB which at the time of writing is around 0.13 BTC.

I am expecting to have 50 BNB around 2020 and 100 around 2024. Let’s see how this plays out. I have a reminder to review this article at the end of 2019.

March Summary and April Plan

March Review

It has being a boring month, kept accumulating bitcoin as per plan. Bought 0.15 BTC. The grind seems endless but 2024 will come sooner.

During March I realized that BNB can become the next Ethereum in the next Bull run so I decided to buy BNB with 0.15 BTC and that is what I did. It is a petty that I spent so much time thinking about which coin could be the next to 100 x and the answer was in front of my eyes. I will keep the BNB for at least a year to see if is is going to act as I have imagined.

I have being also reading Fibonacci analysis books as I was not aware of how this technique worked. I need to take my time with this and reread multiple times the book in order to grasp the concepts but I think I will have managed it until Mid of April.

April Plan

For April I bought the 0.15 BTC that I buy monthly at the end of March because I was expecting a pump in April.

This scenario played out and BTC skyrocketed to $5000.

I do not even look at USD equivalent of BTC anymore, my goal is to accumulate as much BTC as possible by 2024 as I mentioned multiple times throughout the Blog and especially here.

Since the price was pumping I decided to put the 0.15 BTC on Bitmex and take advantage of this mini Bull run by having 0.15 BTC with 2x Leverage. This worked pretty well and now instead of having 0.15 BTC I have 0.175 screenshot below:

I decided that for April I am satisfied and I stopped trading more.

[19.04.2019 ] There is a chance that we may see a reversal of the downtrend here in April. Therefore, I decided to buy a onetime 0.34 BTC and sent to a hardware wallet. This will assist in achieving my goal of gathering 12 BTC until 2024 as described here

If this is not the bottom and we go further down that is also fine. I am not planning to use these BTC until we reach at least $50.000 per BTC.

I will update this post as April comes to and end. Also I am thinking about the May Plan at the moment.

Options Trading Rules

I use options in order to acquire more capital to invest in Bitcoin. However I am not a good trader because of the fear of losing out. On my quest to improve I want to set some rules that I need to follow religiously.

My issue is that I close my winning positions too soon. I do not leave my losing positions running for too long, but the moment I see that a position is winning I tend to close it immediately.

Also I check the markets constantly and this stresses me therefore I need to reduce it.

During the last week for example 90 % of the positions that I closed ended up to run on my directions minutes, not even hours, after having closed my position.

Since I am not using a margin account I can only buy  Calls or Puts but this is fine with me.

I have lost 50 % of my small Capital since I Exit positions too soon. The following rules I believe, if followed, will allow me to improve substantially.

  1. Buy Calls/Puts that expire at least 2 weeks after the current date. Never open positions shorter than that
  2. Always set take profit limit
  3. Check the markets maximum 5 times per day, ideally 2
  4. Ignore and avoid completely if possible news articles and third opinions
  5. Never ever open a position if I am emotionally invested. All initiated positions should be thought a day before opening them, or during the day’s close. If I am getting emotional or irrational , I need to put the phone down immediately and distract myself
  6. Never trade on news. Trade based on them but never be guided by them
  7. Never open positions before earnings. IV will kill me.
  8. Trade only a couple of different stocks or SPY/QQQ
  9. Trading Ideas should ideally come to my head when I am doing something completely different than looking at the markets
  10. If a trade is done, it is done. Do not open new positions immediately  after having closed one on the same underlying. Open only during the next day.
  11. Do not overtrade.  2 -3 open positions every two weeks are more than enough.
  12. Before opening a position consider the premium paid as money lost.
  13. Never open a position unless all rules above are satisfied.
  14. If after 2 months of religiously following the above rules does not work, revisit this list. Next Revision date is 22.03.2019
  15. Don’t be stupid

 Now with those 15 rules I feel more comfortable opening a position. For now I leave my current positions open and once I find a trading opportunity I will follow all  rules above and then open the Position.

Also I Need to have in mind the following:

  1. Markets always give opportunity. Eliminate the fear of missing out on big moves.Every trade not taken is money good invested. There is an infinite amount of positions that are profitable every single day.
  2. Market Manipulation is a part of the game, if you do not like it or use it as an excuse then do not trade.
  3.  Patience is the number one characteristic that I need to preserve.
  4. Even when my p0rtofolio is 90 % down, there is still 10 % available.
  5. Buying Options is by default against me, so from the beginning it is a losing game that can be turned around. We start from a Position of loss trading to make it profitable by doing nothing. If market moves the other way , we follow the rules and there is always the remaining of the portofolio to use with the lessons learned.

My current plan is to revisit this article on 22.03.2019 since by then most of my Options will have expired. I will take notes of what has worked and what not and improve from there.

Revision on 22.03.2019

Today is 22.03.2019 and I have already recovered a great position of the portfolio I lost in the past months since January. I have no points to add at the moment, next revision date is 22.04.2019.

Maybe a small note that I was not able to only watch markets maximum 5 times and I pretty much overdid it. I will work on this point during the next month.

I also traded on news, I bought a couple of SPY straddles the day I knew the FED will announce interest rates policy. I made just a small amount of money. I should avoid this in the future since it is risky and it does not match my character.

Revision 28.03.2019

DONT TRADE AMAZON

February 2019 Summary

What an exciting month it has being ! BTC is still on life support but it showed some signs of recovery.

At the time of writing we had a nice upward movement to $4200 which for my long term accumulation plan it is just small noise however it feels good to have breaken the downwards spiral for a while.

According to my accumulation plan I bought 0.15 BTC for February at @3397 and also I bought the March part of 0.15 BTC on February because I was expecting a pump so I bought it at @3948 and again sold it at @4200 so I still need to buy my 0.15 BTC for March, hopefully for lower price once and if this pump settles. If we continue to go up I will have to buy 0.15 at a bit higher price in March since I will continue following my plan until 2024.

I continue to check the price as of habit around 2 or 3 times a day but my goal is to reduce that and check only once per week. The thing is that I am following a lot of people on Twitter that talk about bitcoin so I indirectly stay informed and I need to find a way to also reduce that.

For the upcoming months I will be working on my 4 button trading Idea that I have talked on the previous post. I have already implemented the arrow movement that they Trigger a funtion once pressed. I decided to trade Options with this since I can go Long or short on a stock and not Bitcoin as I am not Feeling comfortable with Bitmex. Hopefully I will have an implementation ready by end of March so that I can start playing with it with fake Money.


4 Buttons Trading idea [part 1]

I read a post on Reddit that someone dream of trading with a Joystick. I thought this was a great idea to implement.

He would trade on one Minute Charts and if he thought that  the Price would go up in the next tick he would pull the stick up.  If he thought that the Price would go down we would pull the Lever down. If he wanted to Exit his Position he would pull the Joystick to the left and if he wanted to trade profits he would pull the Lever right.

What an Amazing concept ! I thought i could replace the Joystick Action with the arrow Buttons by doing something like the following: Go Long on Bitcoin by pushing the up arrow. Go short on bitcoin by pushing the down arrow. Stop Limit with the left arrow and take profits with the right one.

However this is not that easy to implement on Bitmex  since once we enter a contract with a market buy the Price that is entered  is not exactly the same as the $BTC as reported by the exchanges.

My second thought was to implement this with my Broker which I trade USA Options. This could work better. At this Phase the underlying security that I will trade is not that important.

As a first step I would like to implement the arrow logic. Once the logic is implemented I will see with what Exchange I will connect it to so that I can trade with the arrows.

Note that this will not work on stocks since we Need to be  able to go short (something that I have not enabled and I am not going to do with my broker). If I Chose to trade securities I will probably trade with USA Options. Buying calls once the upper arrow is pressed and buying puts if the down arrow is pressed. With left arrow I will Exit my Position with market Close and with the left arrow I will also market sell but for taking profits.

Another consideration is the Input of the Price and the underlying how it can be done with an efficient way and I have not thought of a good solution. Maybe I will use the closest contract to the underlying Price both for Bitcoin and for Options.

For the next update for this post I would like to have implemented the arrow logic to have something to work on.

January 2019 Summary

I decided it is a good idea to start documenting my thoughts each month, what actions I did and why so that I can review them in the future and find out how my vision of reality played out in comparison with what actually happened.

As mentioned in the post here I am accumulating Bitcoin at this time at a rate of 0.15 BTC / month. Since there is not a lot going on at the Bitcoin markets at this time I decided to not take further action and trade on those levels, I will just continue to accumulate as I planned last December. I am also not willing to trade altcoins or Bitcoin on leverage since I find more fun to trade in the USA markets instead.

I started playing with USA options and I managed to not blow up my account yet. I started trading them on January and by end of January I am down 50% . For me this is a satisfying performance since I am learning how to trade them. I use online resources to educate myself and bought a couple of options books which I find very useful.

The biggest mistake that I made 2 times and that I am not going to repeat again is that I traded options on Twitter and on Netflix earnings. That is I bought puts and bet that the direction of the stock will go down for Netflix and I bought Calls and Puts for Twitter options.

Both options had very close expiry dates and there was not enough time for the stock to make a move that I would end up in profit.

All options were bought at the Money, however the Implied Volatility was really high when I bought them and that means that I overpaid for them.

Twitter actually went down but since I had Call and Put options with a ration of 5 / 3 the down movement was not enough to end me in net profit.

For those two trades I lost around $2000 so the lesson I learned is that I should never buy any options which expire shortly after an Earnings Release. Even if the stock moves at my direction I tend to close fast my winning positions and let my losing positions keep losing so this game is not for me.

For February I will be only trading Amazon options. My plan is to buy weekly puts and calls on the same strike price and review their performance and the end of each day. I have put a take profit limit and I will avoid looking at them during the day because my Emotions do not let me think clearly. I started with this tactic during January end and I made around $900.

I hope next month that the Bitcoin markets are more exciting so that I can trade a bit of Bitcoins as well.


Coinbase new Listings Trading Bot source code [part 2] Buying from Bittrex.

My trading bot is too much hassle for me at the moment to maintain so I decided to release the source code with an explanation of what it does and how to use it. Another reason is that with time the Coinbase pump is not that strong and sometimes a coin instead of pumping it will dump, so I decided that it does not worth the risk of running it anymore. Lastly it seems like Coinbase for the time being is not doing any listings and I am not in the mood to have the Bot running for weeks without any listing. Having an instance running in AWS for months without getting any Coinbase listing is frustrating.

This bot is constantly fetching the Coingbase blog looking for new posts that include new coin listing in their titles and then buys them instantly on Bittrex. For example when Coinbase announces a new listing they title their Blog post something in the lines of:

ZEC trading on Coinbase Pro is about to begin. The ZEC/USDC order book will now enter Post-Only mode.

So we have previously defined a list of all currencies that we expect Coinbase to list in the future and we just keep fetching their website until one of them is listed. If multiple currencies are listed on Coinbase together as it happened in the past, the list defined mentioned above is ordered so the currency higher in the order will be bought in the end. For example if Stellar is higher in the listing than Ripple, it will be bought instead of Ripple.

Note that Coinbase Pro makes a new tweet every time they list a new coin, however their blog post announcement always comes first since their tweet includes a link to their blog post, so it makes sense to directly query the site instead of twitter, and believe me every millisecond counts.

The bot is written in Javascript has no GUI and runs as a Chrome browser extension. I have being running the bot in an AWS Ubuntu instance since they offer decent internet connection but the bot is platform agnostic. if you have Chrome you can run it. Every browser extension has a predefined structure in order to be able to get loaded into Chrome. The main logic of the extension follows below commented:

We define the Bittrex key and the Bittrex secret we have generated from Bittrex. You can generate one from your account settings and also make sure to enable trading for this key but disable account withdrawals as a safe practice. This is because the bot uses your Bittrex account to buy the coin once it is listed on Coinbase.

We also define how often we query Coinbase for new listings, the order book depth that we want to run the buy order and the amount of $BTC we are willing to sell. I explain below what is the depth of the order book and why it is important for Bittrex.

Last variable is the Coinbase URL we are querying. Note that we only query their initial page. What that means is that Coinbase blog supports infinite scrolling and the more we scroll down the more articles are fetched and shown. However we only fetch the “top” page since new coins are listed on their first page always, as it is important to get visibility. We do this via the URL that you see above. It returns the Coinbase blog in a JSON format we can easily filter for every post title.

That is the main loop of the application that is performing the function fetch coinbase every 460ms as we defined above. You can adjust this value according to your needs and your network.

All the function does is continuously fetching the latest Coinbase blog posts. As they are fetched in JSON format we can easily filter and take all the titles from the latest posts. We pack all the titles in a single line and convert it into uppercase and then we call the extract_currencies function which will check if there are any currencies mentioned in the titles.

Here is how the output looks like:

Here is the extract_currencies function which is pretty simple. It checks if the titles that were fetched before contain the word STELLAR or XLM. We do this for every available currency which is available to buy on Bittrex and is not yet listed on Coinbase. You see above if the blog title contains one of these two words the function get_bittrex_price_by_currency() is called and we also pass the trade_amount which is the amount of BTC that we want to sell in order to buy XLM. Let’s move to this function then.

We first make a query on Bittrex in order to get the latest market price. As you see we do not fetch the best available price but we get a bit lower in the orderbook as defined in the variable bittrex_order_depth. We do that because with Bittrex we cannot perform a market buy. We need to specifically define the price we are willing to pay.

Imagine a scenario where the latest BTCXLM price is 0.00003000. If we put this value in our order we have a chance that someone else’s bot is quicker than us to buy at 0.00003000 so all we have left is an open buy order that is not executed.

Since the price is rising tremendously in the second of the announcement we want to make sure that we will eventually get XLM, therefore we just buy the 40th order. I have done some experimenting and this is a good depth which can give us a 10% – 15 % return.

So once we have the price that we want to buy we call the function set_bittrex_order(currency,price,trade_amount) with the currency we want to buy and the amount of Bitcoin we are willing to pay for it.

This is the last part where we construct the signed request to Bittrex to execute our order. We need to include our Bittrex key and our Bittrex secret as defined by the Bittrex API and then perform an HTTP Get to the /marketbuy endpoint.

Once the bot places the order it then stops execution as it has fulfilled its goal.

You can download the Chrome Extension here. Make sure you add your Bittrex keys and secrets and you know exactly what you are doing. Make sure to add the coins you want to track and remove the ones that are already configured. If you mindlessly get the add on and start running it you will lose your money.

My Bitcoin accumulation plan until 2024

Goal : Accumulate 12 BTC as soon as possible.

Progress [April 2019]: 8.12 %

This is a live document which I update very often with new ideas.

As mentioned here I am expecting the new Parabolic Bitcoin Bull run to take place around 2024. That means that I will be using these 5 years in order to accumulate more Bitcoins. I make the assumption that the peak of the Bull will be around 2024/25. I do not plan to take all the profit before this date or before BTC reaches $100.000. However I will take 40 % profit once BTC reaches $50.000. Maybe in the end I will not have to, if BTC gets more integrated into society but I think that will not be the case and we are still really early.

Currently my only income comes from my day job so I will be assigning a part of it on BTC. I am currently writing a post that goes through my income distribution on various investments and this post will shed more light into it.

Making a long term plan like this does not give a great satisfaction since a small amount of fiat is dedicated every month in order to buy a small amount of BTC. Also it is the nature of BTC that makes this adventure risky as at any point it can break down. In addition at the moment there is not at all any upside movement in order to make this grind a bit more exciting. I predict it to be a long grind which I will document in this frequently updated post.

There is also the difficulty of maintaining the secret keys intact for a period of 5 years which i regularely Think about. I have not found any great solution to this yet but I am Brainstorming about which would be the ideal way to store them.

Unfortunately I have to purchase BTC with fiat since I suck at trading and I do not want to risk losing what I have already invested. There are some clever guys out there that accumulate only by trading but that is not for me, at least for now.

I will not explain again in this post why I believe that there will not be a Parabolic bull run at the 2020 halving. To summarize everyone knows of the next halving and it will be pretty obvious that this scenario plays as exactly as everyone is expecting. Everyone at the moment is pricing in that the next bull run will take place in or around 2020. [ This view is probably influenced by the fact that we have being through a horrible bear market but I am inclined to Change my opinion if the Price allows it. (  05.04.19)].

I expect that the halving in 2024 will be the catalyst of the next Parabolic bull run since by then the whole Bitcoin infrastructure will have matured, having a history of 15 years behind it and with the help of Lightning Network enabling small payments or a similar solution if Lightning Fails to scale.

My goal is to accumulate 12  Bitcoins by the end of 2024. That means that I will be buying around 2 bitcoins per year for 6 years in total. I already bought a hardware wallet and in addition I will be using a mobile wallet for small amounts and some small amount on exchanges during the accumulation. However if it turns out that I cannot afford 2 BTC per year I have to reduce the number as we move out of the bear market.

I expect the price to be around $1500 – $8000 up until 2020 and I will be buying more as the price reaches my lower limit.The $6000 acted as a strong support during 2018 so I am expecting it also to be a strong resistance on the way up. I have no idea what the price is going to be later as anyone else but with today’s data and given my budget I think the 0.15 BTC  500 Euro monthly allocation is something that I can afford. This of course will change in the future once the Bitcoin price starts rising again but for now ( 04.2019 ) my monthly budget is around 500 Euro which equals 0.15 BTC. I think however that until 2020 we will not go higher than $9000.

As far as shitcoins go, I have currently no open position. I am expecting them to slowly dissapear once people realize what a scam they are. As mentioned earlier I am not good at trading so I am trying to avoid it as much as possible. 

[04.2019] Scammers are actively trying to trick the masses into buying shitcoins  so it can be that the altcoins are here to stay longer, as long as BTC price is volatile.

[04.2019] I decided to purchase 1 BNB per month as this is the only shitcoin that I am confortable that will multiply in value during the next years. I already bought 36 BNB at once.

I am expecting a phase where Bitcoin price will be around $1500, but maybe that is my inner Bear that does the talking.If this phase comes I assume that this will be a desperation phase where most of people will have lost their conviction for the future of Bitcoin. I am also seeing myself being psychologically affected by such a price drop however I will stick to my plan and buy aggressively. Edit: 04.2019 After editing this post after 3 months if initially writing it I am not even sure that the above scenario will play out.

Below is my currently scheduled plan which will be subject to modification according market reactions. In the case that a Bull run would seem to start I will stop buying as scheduled and start selling instead. My goal again is to have around 12 additional bitcoins by the end of 2024. Below is the base plan that I have in mind. I will however deviate from it a bit as described in the modifications. I will keep updating this scenario as well so that in the future I have a reference and be able to see how well I performed in comparison with it.

Theoretical Scenario of buying the same amount each month.

DateBTCBTC sum
01.190,150,15
02.190,150,3
03.190,150,45
04.19 0,15 0,6
04.19 – One time buy. 0.386
05.9 0,15 0,75
06.19 0,15 0.90
07.19 0,15 1,15
08.19 0,15 1,30
09.19 0,15 1,45
10.19 0,15 1,60
11.19 0,15 1,75
12.19 0,15 1,90
01.20 0,15 2,15
02.20 0,15 2,30
03.20 0,15 2,45
04.20 0,15 2,6
05.20 0,15 2,75
06.20 0,15 2,90
07.20 0,15 3,15
08.20 0,15 3,30
09.20 0,15 3,45
10.20 0,15 3,60
11.20 0,15 3,75
12.20 0,15 3,90
01.21 0,15 4,15
02.21 0,15 4,30
03.21 0,15 4,45
04.21 0,15 4,75
05.21 0,15 4,90
06.21 0,15 5,15
07.21 0,15 5,30
08.21 0,15 5,45
09.21 0,15 5,60
10.21 0,15 5,75
11.21 0,15 5,90
12.21 0,15 6,15
01.22 0,15 6,30
02.22 0,15 6,45
03.22 0,15 6,60
.04.22 0,15 6,75
05.22 0,15 6,90
06.22 0,15 7,15
07.22 0,15 7,30
08.22 0,15 7,45
09.22 0,15 7,60
10.22 0,15 7,75
11.22 0,15 7,90
12.22 0,15 8,15
01.23 0,15 8,30
02.23 0,15 8,45
03.23 0,15 8,60
04.23 0,15 8,75
05.23 0,15 8,90
06.23 0,15 9,15
07.23 0,15 9,30
08.23 0,15 9,45
09.23 0,15 9,60
10.23 0,15 9,75
11.23 0,15 9,90
12.23 0,15 10,15
01.24 0,15 10,30
02.24 0,15 10,45
03.24 0,15 10,60
0424 0,15 10,75
05.24 0,15 10,90
06.24 0,15 11,15
07.24 0,15 11,30
08.24 0,15 11,45
09.24 0,15 11,60
10.24 0,15 11,75
11.24 0,15 11,90
12.24 0,15 12,15
72 months
12,15 BTC

Modification 1 – Deprecated

edit [27.03.2019] – Rereading the whole paragraph below after a couple of months of writing the first version of the article does not make much sense anymore. It makes the whole strategy complicated and I like to keep things simple by just accumulating almost the same amount every month, therefore i will not be following anymore what is mentioned below.

One week after I have written this post I was looking at the bitcoin historical chart and I had the following idea. I took the major support areas of the previous years and charted them below. You can see the price around these areas are around $3000, $1800 and $900.

So I was thinking that I will continue averaging down as originally planned but I needed to take into consideration these 3 significant support/resistance price areas. The big question is if that these areas are reached at all in the future. Because if they are not reached the plan that I am about to write will be useless so I need to take into consideration the case where these prices are not reached. Edit As of 02.04.2019 it seems that these Levels below will not be reached so I will need to slightly modify my plan. We currently experience a jump of BTC Price from 3800 to 5000.

Why it is important to consider these 3 price areas other than their historical significance ? Because it is not the same if I buy bitcoin around $900 and If I buy around $3000. I get around 3 times more bitcoin when I buy around $900 in case the price is of course reached. So the point is to delay buying at $3000 so that I can buy 3 times around $900. But how do we do that ?

First let’s note that in the whole post I made the assumption that the price of bitcoin will reach lows around $1000. If it happens and the BTC price goes much lower then the whole model described above does not make much sense. So we need to think of a way to buy or to delay buying bitcoin according to the current price and these three future resistance areas. We also want to buy more when the price is near $900 ( which according to our model is around the lowest the price could go) and buy around 3 times less when the price is around $3000. ( which is about 3x 900 ). At the same time however we do not want to wait for something that potentially never happens, for example bitcoin reaching $700. So an example scenario would be : we avoid buying at the current level of say $2000 because we expect that the price will go lower at $1000 but we are wrong and the price begins to skyrocket so we are left with nothing because we were expecting to buy on lower prices that never came.

We need then to assign a probability at our current scenarios which are the following. Also we need to adjust this probability monthly since we update our model once per month. Also a monthly adjustment is required since the price of $BTC will eventually start moving upwards but since we are now in a downtrend movement the following will do:

Monthly Probability Chart – To be updated at the end of each Month

0 < $BTC < 800. – 10 % probability of that happening – action: Buy full amount
800 < $BTC < 1800. – 30 % probability of that happening – action : Buy full amount / 2
1800 < $BTC < 3200. – 60 % probability of that happening – action: Buy full amount/3

In addition I would like to cover the case that I am wrong and that there will be indeed a bull run in 2021, at the next halving. As i am writing my thoughts a lot of scenarios play in my mind that should be considered. But I would like in this phase to forget about this scenario and talk about it in the next modification, so I will continue will the current Modification 1 and talk about the 2021 Bull run scenario in the future.

So for now we have considered the worst scenarios that are about to happen and we want to adjust our buying strategy. With the initial assumption we would buy 0.15 $BTC per month. However with these additional scenarios in mind it would make sense to adjust this 0.15 according to the current price and the projection of the future price. So what I am about to do is that I will be buying less than 0.15 BTC monthly and the amount that remains I will put in on open limit order near the next support area since we are in a fully bear market. If the limit order is not executed until the next scheduled buy is due , the amount that is on the limit buy I will transfer and buy at the current month

Calculation:

Amount to buy monthly <= 0.15 BTC. The remaining amount will be transferred to be bought in a future date. If the current Bitcoin price were $800 ( which is the lowest according to our model) we would buy the maximum monthly allocated 0.15 $BTC. Since there is 10 % chance the price will go under 800 where we would buy the full amount , 30 % chance the price will go around 1800 where we would buy the half of full amount and 60% that the price would be around 3200 we have the following numbers:

0.1 x 0.15 + 0.3 x 0.15/2 + 0.7 x 0.15/3 = 0,0725

So instead of buying the full 0.15 we originally allocated as a monthly buy, we will buy 0.0725 instead and the remaining 0.0775 will be transferred and be bought in a future date. However what will happen if the price continues to rise ? That means that the next month we will have to buy Bitcoin more expensive. However if the price continues to fall it means we will have saved some of our capital to buy it cheaper. So the question that comes next is for how long should we continue avoid buying the maximum amount we are willing to dedicate each month ?

The remaining 0.07681 that I would have bought if I followed the original plan I have placed in a limit order if the $BTC price reaches the support around $3240. I chose the $3240 support since this is a level I am happy with to buy given the current market.

This is the strategy as of now and I will update it If I have some better idea during the next days or in February!

Modification 2

I will allow myself instead of just buying at the last day of each month as originally thought, to be able to buy during the whole month. I can chose the day that I buy. Also if I think that during a month the price is low I can forward buy for the next month. However I do not want to overdo it so I will limit myself only buying maximum for 1 month distance. For example if it is February I can buy maximum during February for March.

Modification 3

Edit[14-04-19] : This modification is deprecated. No trading.

Original Idea: Since Modification 2 allows me to buy Bitcoin during any day of the current month I thought of the following : I could trade the amount that I allocated to the current Month in order to trade it. That means I could buy for example 0.15 once BTC price is let’s say for example $3000 and then trade it in the same month in the hope that I can increase this amount by month’s end.

Modification 4 – Deprecated

Edit[14-04-19]: I decided to no longer trade on USA markets as I suck at it and the more I trade the more I lose. I transferred all the Money I had on USA markets except 1300 euro and converted them to BTC.

I thought of a modification what will allow me to reach my goal of gathering 12.5 BTC by 2024 faster. Since I am speculating in the USA stock market I will be using a part of my profit into buying BTC. The current plan is that once and If I become profitable I will be using the 1 / 3 of the profit into buying Bitcoin.

Modification 5 – Deprecated

Edit 16.04.2019 I decided to not do the below as it is risky. Instead I will be bying 1 BNB per month as mentioned here.

I think of something which can be risky, but I can put the BTC that I have already acquired and they sit doing nothing to work. For example I can use the January part in order to buy BNB and wait until the price appreciates and then sell back for BTC. I think that at the moment the BNB is the only coin that has decoupled from BTC. I expand on this thought on the May/April post.

Date Planned
ActualSumUSD
Comment
01.190.150.15
0.15
@$3391
02.190.150.15
0.30@$3397
03.190.15
0.15
0.45
@3490
04.190.150.150.60@4078
04.19N/A0.3860.986@5100one time buy
05.180.15

Don’t let your emotions get in your way of Trading.

Start of February edit: So far this tactic mentioned below does not seem to work. I fully followed my emotions and I made really bad trades. It has being a really painful experience but I have learned a lot. I left the original post up so that I can read it and see how foolish it was to just trade with Emotions the result is catastrophic. I have being trading however on USA Markets and not on Bitcoin markets. I am not willing at the moment to give away any of the hard earned Satoshis I have made.

I developed a system through the pain that seems to bring results which I am going to further exercise and improve and post an update on March post.

End of January edit: So far I have not made any Crypto trade this year. Just following my standard monthly BTC buying tactic as mentioned here.

Unfortunately our emotions blind us and force us to make irrational decisions when our money is at stake. When I am trading I always hear an inner voice telling me what I am doing is wrong.

There is however another voice that comes from deeper within that gives me the belief that what I am doing is right.

Sometimes I listen to both of these voices and position myself so that I can satisfy both of them. Sometimes the inner voice is right and sometimes the outer voice is right.I have come to believe that all this is just a game of chance and I am just paranoid.

There are just so many variables to consider when trading. It is a kind of freedom that actually constricts us, so we need to set some rules in order to make sense of it

Every single decision I make is based on the fact that I know nothing. I am putting myself out there with the goal of minimizing the potential damage and maximizing the potential gains that can be made.

History repeats itself but in unknown intervals so that we cannot base our decisions on her. What goes up has to come down based on the law of physics but the timeline of the rise and fall is unknown so for us it makes no sense to follow this and similar rules.

How can we make sure that our portfolio will continue going up regardless of what the market does ? Theoretically this is possible since we can both gain or lose by the market going up or down.

But maybe this is the wrong question to ask. We want a portfolio that goes up regardless of what is happening around us. In a way we want our portfolio to defy the rules of physics.

Can it be that we have being asking the wrong questions therefore we found no right answer?

How about a “liquid” portfolio that just follows the market, or maybe a portfolio that does the opposite of what the market does.

For the first question we have already an answer with Index investing. We follow the market and we stop there. We buy a ticket and play along. And we of course cannot do the opposite of what the market does since we do not know what she will do.

What if we trade only based on emotions ? My gut feeling tells me buy and then my gut feeling tells me sell. How would this strategy work ? Not really good because everyone tells us to not trade with emotions.

So I decided to do just that. For 2019 I will trade with emotions. But not the kind of emotions of taking revenge or making the wrong right.

I will just follow the flow- the sum of my emotions so to say – and see where it takes me.