Trying to find my place

Even though I am advocating for Bitcoin, I feel I am a passive part of the whole ecosystem. I am not really that outspoken and I am not playing an influencing role.

I have not contributed any code and my scripts/programmes have little to no influence so far. I feel like I have a parasitic role, living by the great work of others.

What I am trying to do now is find my way and learn more about Bitcoin internals. I have an idea for an application that uses Bitcoin and I will try to slowly continue developing it.

I find the bitcoin community helpful in general so I know when I get stuck there are lot of developers willing to offer assistance.

As far as Bitcoin goes it seems that we are in a Bull Market since April and I continue accumulating as mentioned in the post here. I cannot accumulate as much as during the start of 2019 as the price is slowly recovering but still I am running according to my plan.

May Summary and June Plan

I suddenly feel an endless crypto boredom. I just feel tired of looking at the price, reading traders opinions, watching price doubling, free falling and then rallying again.

Tired of listening to Bitcoin haters, Bitcoin maximalists and everything in between.

The FOMOers,the FUDers and their continuous non stop nonsense. The marketers and the AI, the Influencers and all the scammers that are around us.

I will just continue my accumulation plan as defined here

For May I already bought 0.15 BTC from April once the price was around $5000 so this money already doubled. I will not be cashing out however until the price goal is reached as defined in the post above.

For June I just bought 0.15 of BTC around 900 USD.

[31.05]For July I already bought 0.05800245  so it remains another 0.10 to be bought later.

[10.06] For July again I bought another 0.06468789 so in total I have 0.12269034 so it remains another 0.02730966 to be bought.

I will try to focus more in learning/implementing BTC than watching the price as this has exchausted me.

April Summary and May Plan

April Summary

As mentioned here, I have gathered 0.15 BTC as per plan. Initially I managed to make from the 0.15 BTC additional 0.04BTC so in total of 0.19 BTC by longing the whole bull run in April with x2 leverage on Bitmex.

However  I got cocky so I overtraded and managed to lose what I made which left me with the Initial 0.15 where I called it a day.

I also bought at the beginning of April 36 BNB since  I  believe that if a shitcoin is to perform better than BTC that would be it. I will continue buying  1 BNB per month until the start of the next bull run.

May Plan

I already bought 0.15 BTC for May and 1 BNB as the regular schedule. As I have a fear that there is a small chance that BTC will tank I have on the side $2000 in order to buy any dip that would bring BTC around that Price.

Nothing fancy planned for May, just wait and see.

Emergency Fund for BTC

I thought I will put 2000 USD on the exchange with an open limit order to buy around 1500 – 2000.

I think the chances of that happening are below 5 % at this point in time but I do not think it is a bad idea.

What motivated me is the legal filling exposing Bitfinex tactics and some insider chat from someone named Merlin that said he thought if Bitfinex did not receive funds immediately the BTC price is endangered to go below 1k.

I get a FOMO feeling on $BTC

I get a really really strong FOMO feeling right now [20.04.19]and I am also feeling that the price is about to explode. Not a strong exponentially explosion but a steady walk up to old time highs.

As mentioned here in my 5 year accumulation plan my goal is to accumulate 12.5 BTC until 2024. At the time of writing this article I have only accomplished 8.5% of this goal or 1 BTC. That means a long way to go.

My tactic right now is only accumulation. That means buy the dips and keep riding without selling until BTC reaches my goal of $50.000 and then $100.000. I will never sell all my BTC as I will always have a stack somewhere forgotten for my children. This amount is 1 BTC right now but I ignore it for all my accumulation purposes since this is not for selling for at least 10 years more, where hopefully i can directly transact with BTC and not having to convert it to USD/EURO.

However the above plan is possible for me only if the price stays in the range of $3000- $8000 but I start to believe that this will not be the case. I would either need to

  1. reduce my total goal
  2. start accumulating more today
  3. find other ways to increase my BTC that has nothing to do with trading cause I suck at it

I am not sure which way is the best as I do not have enough capital at the moment to accumulate more BTC at once. I also do not want to trade BTC with shitcoins or trade with leverage on Bitmex because in the long run I cannot be profitable. The only tactic that I can see me succeeding in is going long on Bitmex with x2 leverage for an extended period of time. This is also risky for me as in order to keep the position open I need to pay 0.01 % of my position every hour and also if the price moves down I am in danger of liquidation which will defeat the whole purpose.

Therefore the only way for me is to offer some service that people are willing to pay a minimal amount of BTC in order to obtain.

My next step right now is to do nothing at all. I will keep following the plan and buy every month 0.15 BTC and see how it plays out. I will also try to think of some services that would be useful to me and try to implement them.

Can BNB be the next Ethereum ?

Ethereum is a shitcoin and BNB is a shitcoin. Let’s not talk which one is shittier than the other as this is not the goal here.

I think if a coin is to become so overvalued as Ethereum ( or other similar for that matter) once was this could be BNB . A centralized Shitcoin but who cares. It is the market’s opinion of a coin that matters and not the fundamentals, at least for a while and especially in Cryptocurrencies world.

In preparation of the next bubble I am trying to guess what alt coins could potentially perform as the ones that over performed during the 2017 peak. This is a pretty hard task given that almost all coins are shitty with no real use. I think that the market will continue to overvalue altcoins as long as Bitcoin is volatile.

I think BNB will become one of the most overvalued coins. It is one of the few ( only ?) shitcoins that have actually a use as it is used as a medium of exchange in Binance. One other factor will be the “Decentralized” Exchange that Binance will be pushing in the near future which I expect that could give BNB two more magnitudes ( x 100 ) of price boost by 2024.

Below is the historical chart of BNB. Check how consistent the market cycles are. I like that the cycles are repeating consistently and gives me confident that this will also be the case in the future.

I think we are currently on the fourth cycle and I am expecting at least two more during the next two years something which could boost the price tremendously.

Binance as a company has often dialogue with the Cryptocurrency community and openly supports Bitcoin which is another reason that I also support them.

For this reason for the next two years I will be buying 1 BNB per month and if I see that the market continues as it has in the past I will be continue to average in until the next big bubble which I expect in 2024.

My prediction is that at the next Bull market if it happens in 2020 , BNB price will end up being around $200 per piece and during the 2024 Bull market around $2000.

I already started and have 36 BNB which at the time of writing is around 0.13 BTC.

I am expecting to have 50 BNB around 2020 and 100 around 2024. Let’s see how this plays out. I have a reminder to review this article at the end of 2019.

March Summary and April Plan

March Review

It has being a boring month, kept accumulating bitcoin as per plan. Bought 0.15 BTC. The grind seems endless but 2024 will come sooner.

During March I realized that BNB can become the next Ethereum in the next Bull run so I decided to buy BNB with 0.15 BTC and that is what I did. It is a petty that I spent so much time thinking about which coin could be the next to 100 x and the answer was in front of my eyes. I will keep the BNB for at least a year to see if is is going to act as I have imagined.

I have being also reading Fibonacci analysis books as I was not aware of how this technique worked. I need to take my time with this and reread multiple times the book in order to grasp the concepts but I think I will have managed it until Mid of April.

April Plan

For April I bought the 0.15 BTC that I buy monthly at the end of March because I was expecting a pump in April.

This scenario played out and BTC skyrocketed to $5000.

I do not even look at USD equivalent of BTC anymore, my goal is to accumulate as much BTC as possible by 2024 as I mentioned multiple times throughout the Blog and especially here.

Since the price was pumping I decided to put the 0.15 BTC on Bitmex and take advantage of this mini Bull run by having 0.15 BTC with 2x Leverage. This worked pretty well and now instead of having 0.15 BTC I have 0.175 screenshot below:

I decided that for April I am satisfied and I stopped trading more.

[19.04.2019 ] There is a chance that we may see a reversal of the downtrend here in April. Therefore, I decided to buy a onetime 0.34 BTC and sent to a hardware wallet. This will assist in achieving my goal of gathering 12 BTC until 2024 as described here

If this is not the bottom and we go further down that is also fine. I am not planning to use these BTC until we reach at least $50.000 per BTC.

I will update this post as April comes to and end. Also I am thinking about the May Plan at the moment.

Options Trading Rules

[Edit 19.05.19] This article is now obsolete, I am not trading Options anymore and will never do again in the near Future. At least the way I did it was pure gambling. If in the future I have the capital and the right strategy I might come back, but for now I am focused only in Bitcoin and everything else is noise.

I use options in order to acquire more capital to invest in Bitcoin. However I am not a good trader because of the fear of losing out. On my quest to improve I want to set some rules that I need to follow religiously.

My issue is that I close my winning positions too soon. I do not leave my losing positions running for too long, but the moment I see that a position is winning I tend to close it immediately.

Also I check the markets constantly and this stresses me therefore I need to reduce it.

During the last week for example 90 % of the positions that I closed ended up to run on my directions minutes, not even hours, after having closed my position.

Since I am not using a margin account I can only buy  Calls or Puts but this is fine with me.

I have lost 50 % of my small Capital since I Exit positions too soon. The following rules I believe, if followed, will allow me to improve substantially.

  1. Buy Calls/Puts that expire at least 2 weeks after the current date. Never open positions shorter than that
  2. Always set take profit limit
  3. Check the markets maximum 5 times per day, ideally 2
  4. Ignore and avoid completely if possible news articles and third opinions
  5. Never ever open a position if I am emotionally invested. All initiated positions should be thought a day before opening them, or during the day’s close. If I am getting emotional or irrational , I need to put the phone down immediately and distract myself
  6. Never trade on news. Trade based on them but never be guided by them
  7. Never open positions before earnings. IV will kill me.
  8. Trade only a couple of different stocks or SPY/QQQ
  9. Trading Ideas should ideally come to my head when I am doing something completely different than looking at the markets
  10. If a trade is done, it is done. Do not open new positions immediately  after having closed one on the same underlying. Open only during the next day.
  11. Do not overtrade.  2 -3 open positions every two weeks are more than enough.
  12. Before opening a position consider the premium paid as money lost.
  13. Never open a position unless all rules above are satisfied.
  14. If after 2 months of religiously following the above rules does not work, revisit this list. Next Revision date is 22.03.2019
  15. Don’t be stupid

 Now with those 15 rules I feel more comfortable opening a position. For now I leave my current positions open and once I find a trading opportunity I will follow all  rules above and then open the Position.

Also I Need to have in mind the following:

  1. Markets always give opportunity. Eliminate the fear of missing out on big moves.Every trade not taken is money good invested. There is an infinite amount of positions that are profitable every single day.
  2. Market Manipulation is a part of the game, if you do not like it or use it as an excuse then do not trade.
  3.  Patience is the number one characteristic that I need to preserve.
  4. Even when my p0rtofolio is 90 % down, there is still 10 % available.
  5. Buying Options is by default against me, so from the beginning it is a losing game that can be turned around. We start from a Position of loss trading to make it profitable by doing nothing. If market moves the other way , we follow the rules and there is always the remaining of the portofolio to use with the lessons learned.

My current plan is to revisit this article on 22.03.2019 since by then most of my Options will have expired. I will take notes of what has worked and what not and improve from there.

Revision on 22.03.2019

Today is 22.03.2019 and I have already recovered a great position of the portfolio I lost in the past months since January. I have no points to add at the moment, next revision date is 22.04.2019.

Maybe a small note that I was not able to only watch markets maximum 5 times and I pretty much overdid it. I will work on this point during the next month.

I also traded on news, I bought a couple of SPY straddles the day I knew the FED will announce interest rates policy. I made just a small amount of money. I should avoid this in the future since it is risky and it does not match my character.

Revision 28.03.2019


February 2019 Summary

What an exciting month it has being ! BTC is still on life support but it showed some signs of recovery.

At the time of writing we had a nice upward movement to $4200 which for my long term accumulation plan it is just small noise however it feels good to have breaken the downwards spiral for a while.

According to my accumulation plan I bought 0.15 BTC for February at @3397 and also I bought the March part of 0.15 BTC on February because I was expecting a pump so I bought it at @3948 and again sold it at @4200 so I still need to buy my 0.15 BTC for March, hopefully for lower price once and if this pump settles. If we continue to go up I will have to buy 0.15 at a bit higher price in March since I will continue following my plan until 2024.

I continue to check the price as of habit around 2 or 3 times a day but my goal is to reduce that and check only once per week. The thing is that I am following a lot of people on Twitter that talk about bitcoin so I indirectly stay informed and I need to find a way to also reduce that.

For the upcoming months I will be working on my 4 button trading Idea that I have talked on the previous post. I have already implemented the arrow movement that they Trigger a funtion once pressed. I decided to trade Options with this since I can go Long or short on a stock and not Bitcoin as I am not Feeling comfortable with Bitmex. Hopefully I will have an implementation ready by end of March so that I can start playing with it with fake Money.

4 Buttons Trading idea [part 1]

Edit 22.04.19. I keep this idea on hold since I decided to not trade at the time being.

I read a post on Reddit that someone dream of trading with a Joystick. I thought this was a great idea to implement.

He would trade on one Minute Charts and if he thought that  the Price would go up in the next tick he would pull the stick up.  If he thought that the Price would go down we would pull the Lever down. If he wanted to Exit his Position he would pull the Joystick to the left and if he wanted to trade profits he would pull the Lever right.

What an Amazing concept ! I thought i could replace the Joystick Action with the arrow Buttons by doing something like the following: Go Long on Bitcoin by pushing the up arrow. Go short on bitcoin by pushing the down arrow. Stop Limit with the left arrow and take profits with the right one.

However this is not that easy to implement on Bitmex  since once we enter a contract with a market buy the Price that is entered  is not exactly the same as the $BTC as reported by the exchanges.

My second thought was to implement this with my Broker which I trade USA Options. This could work better. At this Phase the underlying security that I will trade is not that important.

As a first step I would like to implement the arrow logic. Once the logic is implemented I will see with what Exchange I will connect it to so that I can trade with the arrows.

Note that this will not work on stocks since we Need to be  able to go short (something that I have not enabled and I am not going to do with my broker). If I Chose to trade securities I will probably trade with USA Options. Buying calls once the upper arrow is pressed and buying puts if the down arrow is pressed. With left arrow I will Exit my Position with market Close and with the left arrow I will also market sell but for taking profits.

Another consideration is the Input of the Price and the underlying how it can be done with an efficient way and I have not thought of a good solution. Maybe I will use the closest contract to the underlying Price both for Bitcoin and for Options.

For the next update for this post I would like to have implemented the arrow logic to have something to work on.