Note: All dates are European Style
This is supposed to be read in the future, meaning on a date far away from 15.07.18. But what exactly does future mean ? I will be reviewing this article yearly until 2024. What would the below image look like by then
This is a today’s coinmarketcap.com screenshot for the top 10 currencies. We can keep this as a reference or a baseline for our future comparison.
We can prepare ourselves a bit so that we are not surprised completely. Let’s see what the same page looked like almost 5 years ago.
Just to go a bit deeper, we see that there are some currencies that remain at the top 10. Bitcoin and Litecoin. What about the others ?
- Namecoin is still there and raised its market cap from 2M to 17M.[ 2019 update: 15 M ]
- Peercoin is still there and raised its market cap from 2M to 31M.[ 2019 update: 15 M ]
- Novacoin is still there and raised its market cap from 0.9M to 5M.[ 2019 update: 1 M ]
- Feathercoin is still there and raised its market cap from 0.8M to 16M.[ 2019 update: 5 M ]
- Terracoin is still there and raised its market cap from 0.4M to 2M[ 2019 update: 0.6 M ]
- Devcoin is not there from a cap of 0.4M , it was abandoned on 2015.
- Freicoin is almost still there from a cap of 0.3M it was reduced to 0.1 M , you can only get it freiexchange.com. As of 2019 it is dead.
- CHNCoin is not there from a cap of 0.2M now it is not sold anywhere.
In general I consider successful future predictions based on past as pure luck. The Stock market proved multiple times in the past that in a scale large enough we cannot use historical performance as an indicator of future performance.
So for example it would not make sense and we should be very careful to say something like the following :
From the current top 10 currencies, 2 will remain and will increase their market cap by a large amount, 5 will remain and increase their market cap by a small amount and 3 will be lost.
But what if we really want to have an opinion for the future, what we should say ? What rules or guidelines can we follow ? Would Technical / Fundamental Analysis be helpful or how about our gut feelings or a combination of all of the above. I would go with a combination of all of them namely :history, gut feeling, technical & fundamental analysis and with a bit of luck you can have a pretty good ( or bad ) approximation of the future.
So if you had to take something out of this article it would be the following: even considering a lot of factors trying to predict future price it would take a considering amount of work and luck to make the prediction accurate.
Having a bit of gut feeling and having done fundamental & Technical analysis I believe Bitcoin’s price will be able to continue to imitate past performance. For the rest of smaller currencies I have done enough technical and fundamental analysis but there are not enough of historical data ( 5 year chucks) and also I do not have a gut feeling.
First Update 12.04.2019- Almost a year after
How fast time goes by! Let’s see how the current top 10 looks like. We see not many differences since last year with one exception. Binance coin. It had an exceptionally good year and this makes me invest into it a bit. I have written down my thoughts here. I still consider it shitcoin but I believe in the next cycles leading to 2024 it can become overvalued.