May Summary and June Plan

I suddenly feel an endless crypto boredom. I just feel tired of looking at the price, reading traders opinions, watching price doubling, free falling and then rallying again.

Tired of listening to Bitcoin haters, Bitcoin maximalists and everything in between.

The FOMOers,the FUDers and their continuous non stop nonsense. The marketers and the AI, the Influencers and all the scammers that are around us.

I will just continue my accumulation plan as defined here

For May I already bought 0.15 BTC from April once the price was around $5000 so this money already doubled. I will not be cashing out however until the price goal is reached as defined in the post above.

For June I just bought 0.15 of BTC around 900 USD.

I will try to focus more in learning/implementing BTC than watching the price as this has exchausted me.

April Summary and May Plan

April Summary

As mentioned here, I have gathered 0.15 BTC as per plan. Initially I managed to make from the 0.15 BTC additional 0.04BTC so in total of 0.19 BTC by longing the whole bull run in April with x2 leverage on Bitmex.

However  I got cocky so I overtraded and managed to lose what I made which left me with the Initial 0.15 where I called it a day.

I also bought at the beginning of April 36 BNB since  I  believe that if a shitcoin is to perform better than BTC that would be it. I will continue buying  1 BNB per month until the start of the next bull run.

May Plan

I already bought 0.15 BTC for May and 1 BNB as the regular schedule. As I have a fear that there is a small chance that BTC will tank I have on the side $2000 in order to buy any dip that would bring BTC around that Price.

Nothing fancy planned for May, just wait and see.

I get a FOMO feeling on $BTC

I get a really really strong FOMO feeling right now [20.04.19]and I am also feeling that the price is about to explode. Not a strong exponentially explosion but a steady walk up to old time highs.

As mentioned here in my 5 year accumulation plan my goal is to accumulate 12.5 BTC until 2024. At the time of writing this article I have only accomplished 8.5% of this goal or 1 BTC. That means a long way to go.

My tactic right now is only accumulation. That means buy the dips and keep riding without selling until BTC reaches my goal of $50.000 and then $100.000. I will never sell all my BTC as I will always have a stack somewhere forgotten for my children. This amount is 1 BTC right now but I ignore it for all my accumulation purposes since this is not for selling for at least 10 years more, where hopefully i can directly transact with BTC and not having to convert it to USD/EURO.

However the above plan is possible for me only if the price stays in the range of $3000- $8000 but I start to believe that this will not be the case. I would either need to

  1. reduce my total goal
  2. start accumulating more today
  3. find other ways to increase my BTC that has nothing to do with trading cause I suck at it

I am not sure which way is the best as I do not have enough capital at the moment to accumulate more BTC at once. I also do not want to trade BTC with shitcoins or trade with leverage on Bitmex because in the long run I cannot be profitable. The only tactic that I can see me succeeding in is going long on Bitmex with x2 leverage for an extended period of time. This is also risky for me as in order to keep the position open I need to pay 0.01 % of my position every hour and also if the price moves down I am in danger of liquidation which will defeat the whole purpose.

Therefore the only way for me is to offer some service that people are willing to pay a minimal amount of BTC in order to obtain.

My next step right now is to do nothing at all. I will keep following the plan and buy every month 0.15 BTC and see how it plays out. I will also try to think of some services that would be useful to me and try to implement them.

Can BNB be the next Ethereum ?

Ethereum is a shitcoin and BNB is a shitcoin. Let’s not talk which one is shittier than the other as this is not the goal here.

I think if a coin is to become so overvalued as Ethereum ( or other similar for that matter) once was this could be BNB . A centralized Shitcoin but who cares. It is the market’s opinion of a coin that matters and not the fundamentals, at least for a while and especially in Cryptocurrencies world.

In preparation of the next bubble I am trying to guess what alt coins could potentially perform as the ones that over performed during the 2017 peak. This is a pretty hard task given that almost all coins are shitty with no real use. I think that the market will continue to overvalue altcoins as long as Bitcoin is volatile.

I think BNB will become one of the most overvalued coins. It is one of the few ( only ?) shitcoins that have actually a use as it is used as a medium of exchange in Binance. One other factor will be the “Decentralized” Exchange that Binance will be pushing in the near future which I expect that could give BNB two more magnitudes ( x 100 ) of price boost by 2024.

Below is the historical chart of BNB. Check how consistent the market cycles are. I like that the cycles are repeating consistently and gives me confident that this will also be the case in the future.

I think we are currently on the fourth cycle and I am expecting at least two more during the next two years something which could boost the price tremendously.

Binance as a company has often dialogue with the Cryptocurrency community and openly supports Bitcoin which is another reason that I also support them.

For this reason for the next two years I will be buying 1 BNB per month and if I see that the market continues as it has in the past I will be continue to average in until the next big bubble which I expect in 2024.

My prediction is that at the next Bull market if it happens in 2020 , BNB price will end up being around $200 per piece and during the 2024 Bull market around $2000.

I already started and have 36 BNB which at the time of writing is around 0.13 BTC.

I am expecting to have 50 BNB around 2020 and 100 around 2024. Let’s see how this plays out. I have a reminder to review this article at the end of 2019.

March Summary and April Plan

March Review

It has being a boring month, kept accumulating bitcoin as per plan. Bought 0.15 BTC. The grind seems endless but 2024 will come sooner.

During March I realized that BNB can become the next Ethereum in the next Bull run so I decided to buy BNB with 0.15 BTC and that is what I did. It is a petty that I spent so much time thinking about which coin could be the next to 100 x and the answer was in front of my eyes. I will keep the BNB for at least a year to see if is is going to act as I have imagined.

I have being also reading Fibonacci analysis books as I was not aware of how this technique worked. I need to take my time with this and reread multiple times the book in order to grasp the concepts but I think I will have managed it until Mid of April.

April Plan

For April I bought the 0.15 BTC that I buy monthly at the end of March because I was expecting a pump in April.

This scenario played out and BTC skyrocketed to $5000.

I do not even look at USD equivalent of BTC anymore, my goal is to accumulate as much BTC as possible by 2024 as I mentioned multiple times throughout the Blog and especially here.

Since the price was pumping I decided to put the 0.15 BTC on Bitmex and take advantage of this mini Bull run by having 0.15 BTC with 2x Leverage. This worked pretty well and now instead of having 0.15 BTC I have 0.175 screenshot below:

I decided that for April I am satisfied and I stopped trading more.

[19.04.2019 ] There is a chance that we may see a reversal of the downtrend here in April. Therefore, I decided to buy a onetime 0.34 BTC and sent to a hardware wallet. This will assist in achieving my goal of gathering 12 BTC until 2024 as described here

If this is not the bottom and we go further down that is also fine. I am not planning to use these BTC until we reach at least $50.000 per BTC.

I will update this post as April comes to and end. Also I am thinking about the May Plan at the moment.

February 2019 Summary

What an exciting month it has being ! BTC is still on life support but it showed some signs of recovery.

At the time of writing we had a nice upward movement to $4200 which for my long term accumulation plan it is just small noise however it feels good to have breaken the downwards spiral for a while.

According to my accumulation plan I bought 0.15 BTC for February at @3397 and also I bought the March part of 0.15 BTC on February because I was expecting a pump so I bought it at @3948 and again sold it at @4200 so I still need to buy my 0.15 BTC for March, hopefully for lower price once and if this pump settles. If we continue to go up I will have to buy 0.15 at a bit higher price in March since I will continue following my plan until 2024.

I continue to check the price as of habit around 2 or 3 times a day but my goal is to reduce that and check only once per week. The thing is that I am following a lot of people on Twitter that talk about bitcoin so I indirectly stay informed and I need to find a way to also reduce that.

For the upcoming months I will be working on my 4 button trading Idea that I have talked on the previous post. I have already implemented the arrow movement that they Trigger a funtion once pressed. I decided to trade Options with this since I can go Long or short on a stock and not Bitcoin as I am not Feeling comfortable with Bitmex. Hopefully I will have an implementation ready by end of March so that I can start playing with it with fake Money.

4 Buttons Trading idea [part 1]

Edit 22.04.19. I keep this idea on hold since I decided to not trade at the time being.

I read a post on Reddit that someone dream of trading with a Joystick. I thought this was a great idea to implement.

He would trade on one Minute Charts and if he thought that  the Price would go up in the next tick he would pull the stick up.  If he thought that the Price would go down we would pull the Lever down. If he wanted to Exit his Position he would pull the Joystick to the left and if he wanted to trade profits he would pull the Lever right.

What an Amazing concept ! I thought i could replace the Joystick Action with the arrow Buttons by doing something like the following: Go Long on Bitcoin by pushing the up arrow. Go short on bitcoin by pushing the down arrow. Stop Limit with the left arrow and take profits with the right one.

However this is not that easy to implement on Bitmex  since once we enter a contract with a market buy the Price that is entered  is not exactly the same as the $BTC as reported by the exchanges.

My second thought was to implement this with my Broker which I trade USA Options. This could work better. At this Phase the underlying security that I will trade is not that important.

As a first step I would like to implement the arrow logic. Once the logic is implemented I will see with what Exchange I will connect it to so that I can trade with the arrows.

Note that this will not work on stocks since we Need to be  able to go short (something that I have not enabled and I am not going to do with my broker). If I Chose to trade securities I will probably trade with USA Options. Buying calls once the upper arrow is pressed and buying puts if the down arrow is pressed. With left arrow I will Exit my Position with market Close and with the left arrow I will also market sell but for taking profits.

Another consideration is the Input of the Price and the underlying how it can be done with an efficient way and I have not thought of a good solution. Maybe I will use the closest contract to the underlying Price both for Bitcoin and for Options.

For the next update for this post I would like to have implemented the arrow logic to have something to work on.

January 2019 Summary

I decided it is a good idea to start documenting my thoughts each month, what actions I did and why so that I can review them in the future and find out how my vision of reality played out in comparison with what actually happened.

As mentioned in the post here I am accumulating Bitcoin at this time at a rate of 0.15 BTC / month. Since there is not a lot going on at the Bitcoin markets at this time I decided to not take further action and trade on those levels, I will just continue to accumulate as I planned last December. I am also not willing to trade altcoins or Bitcoin on leverage since I find more fun to trade in the USA markets instead.

I started playing with USA options and I managed to not blow up my account yet. I started trading them on January and by end of January I am down 50% . For me this is a satisfying performance since I am learning how to trade them. I use online resources to educate myself and bought a couple of options books which I find very useful.

The biggest mistake that I made 2 times and that I am not going to repeat again is that I traded options on Twitter and on Netflix earnings. That is I bought puts and bet that the direction of the stock will go down for Netflix and I bought Calls and Puts for Twitter options.

Both options had very close expiry dates and there was not enough time for the stock to make a move that I would end up in profit.

All options were bought at the Money, however the Implied Volatility was really high when I bought them and that means that I overpaid for them.

Twitter actually went down but since I had Call and Put options with a ration of 5 / 3 the down movement was not enough to end me in net profit.

For those two trades I lost around $2000 so the lesson I learned is that I should never buy any options which expire shortly after an Earnings Release. Even if the stock moves at my direction I tend to close fast my winning positions and let my losing positions keep losing so this game is not for me.

For February I will be only trading Amazon options. My plan is to buy weekly puts and calls on the same strike price and review their performance and the end of each day. I have put a take profit limit and I will avoid looking at them during the day because my Emotions do not let me think clearly. I started with this tactic during January end and I made around $900.

I hope next month that the Bitcoin markets are more exciting so that I can trade a bit of Bitcoins as well.

Coinbase new Listings Trading Bot source code [part 2] Buying from Bittrex.

My trading bot is too much hassle for me at the moment to maintain so I decided to release the source code with an explanation of what it does and how to use it. Another reason is that with time the Coinbase pump is not that strong and sometimes a coin instead of pumping it will dump, so I decided that it does not worth the risk of running it anymore. Lastly it seems like Coinbase for the time being is not doing any listings and I am not in the mood to have the Bot running for weeks without any listing. Having an instance running in AWS for months without getting any Coinbase listing is frustrating.

This bot is constantly fetching the Coingbase blog looking for new posts that include new coin listing in their titles and then buys them instantly on Bittrex. For example when Coinbase announces a new listing they title their Blog post something in the lines of:

ZEC trading on Coinbase Pro is about to begin. The ZEC/USDC order book will now enter Post-Only mode.

So we have previously defined a list of all currencies that we expect Coinbase to list in the future and we just keep fetching their website until one of them is listed. If multiple currencies are listed on Coinbase together as it happened in the past, the list defined mentioned above is ordered so the currency higher in the order will be bought in the end. For example if Stellar is higher in the listing than Ripple, it will be bought instead of Ripple.

Note that Coinbase Pro makes a new tweet every time they list a new coin, however their blog post announcement always comes first since their tweet includes a link to their blog post, so it makes sense to directly query the site instead of twitter, and believe me every millisecond counts.

The bot is written in Javascript has no GUI and runs as a Chrome browser extension. I have being running the bot in an AWS Ubuntu instance since they offer decent internet connection but the bot is platform agnostic. if you have Chrome you can run it. Every browser extension has a predefined structure in order to be able to get loaded into Chrome. The main logic of the extension follows below commented:

We define the Bittrex key and the Bittrex secret we have generated from Bittrex. You can generate one from your account settings and also make sure to enable trading for this key but disable account withdrawals as a safe practice. This is because the bot uses your Bittrex account to buy the coin once it is listed on Coinbase.

We also define how often we query Coinbase for new listings, the order book depth that we want to run the buy order and the amount of $BTC we are willing to sell. I explain below what is the depth of the order book and why it is important for Bittrex.

Last variable is the Coinbase URL we are querying. Note that we only query their initial page. What that means is that Coinbase blog supports infinite scrolling and the more we scroll down the more articles are fetched and shown. However we only fetch the “top” page since new coins are listed on their first page always, as it is important to get visibility. We do this via the URL that you see above. It returns the Coinbase blog in a JSON format we can easily filter for every post title.

That is the main loop of the application that is performing the function fetch coinbase every 460ms as we defined above. You can adjust this value according to your needs and your network.

All the function does is continuously fetching the latest Coinbase blog posts. As they are fetched in JSON format we can easily filter and take all the titles from the latest posts. We pack all the titles in a single line and convert it into uppercase and then we call the extract_currencies function which will check if there are any currencies mentioned in the titles.

Here is how the output looks like:

Here is the extract_currencies function which is pretty simple. It checks if the titles that were fetched before contain the word STELLAR or XLM. We do this for every available currency which is available to buy on Bittrex and is not yet listed on Coinbase. You see above if the blog title contains one of these two words the function get_bittrex_price_by_currency() is called and we also pass the trade_amount which is the amount of BTC that we want to sell in order to buy XLM. Let’s move to this function then.

We first make a query on Bittrex in order to get the latest market price. As you see we do not fetch the best available price but we get a bit lower in the orderbook as defined in the variable bittrex_order_depth. We do that because with Bittrex we cannot perform a market buy. We need to specifically define the price we are willing to pay.

Imagine a scenario where the latest BTCXLM price is 0.00003000. If we put this value in our order we have a chance that someone else’s bot is quicker than us to buy at 0.00003000 so all we have left is an open buy order that is not executed.

Since the price is rising tremendously in the second of the announcement we want to make sure that we will eventually get XLM, therefore we just buy the 40th order. I have done some experimenting and this is a good depth which can give us a 10% – 15 % return.

So once we have the price that we want to buy we call the function set_bittrex_order(currency,price,trade_amount) with the currency we want to buy and the amount of Bitcoin we are willing to pay for it.

This is the last part where we construct the signed request to Bittrex to execute our order. We need to include our Bittrex key and our Bittrex secret as defined by the Bittrex API and then perform an HTTP Get to the /marketbuy endpoint.

Once the bot places the order it then stops execution as it has fulfilled its goal.

You can download the Chrome Extension here. Make sure you add your Bittrex keys and secrets and you know exactly what you are doing. Make sure to add the coins you want to track and remove the ones that are already configured. If you mindlessly get the add on and start running it you will lose your money.